Sticky Date
06-07-2015, 09:11 PM
Punting..... no guarantees....but some punts you have way better chances of an outcome you'll be smiling about :-) I reckon here is just one of those.
I like it when the odds are in your favour. I don't know too many times when that's the case... but looks like one case right now staring us in the face.
Step 1. Figure out about how much you punt on average every week.
Step 2. Don't punt in your usual way this week.... Instead consider a different way, that has a decent chance of giving you most of a years punting $, by foregoing just one week of your normal punting and having a bit of luck.
I'm not generally a betting man. While I've often kicked myself for not betting on Qld for State of Origin ( if you had since 1980 and you bet on Qld every year, you would have done very very well over the 35 years, as they've generally been underdogs and yet prior to 10 years ago, won pretty close to 50% of the games, providing any Qld punter stayer with a healthy underdog return). In fact the only time I ever gambled on sport was on Think Big in 1974 when it won the Melbourne Cup! Off memory it was a $5 bet... can't remember how much I won.
Anyway,
Nick Kyrgios, according to most of the top tennis commentators while obviously not certain, is highly highly likely to win a grand slam tournament sometime. That's pretty much the consensus.... he has what it takes. I couldn't agree more with McEnroe, Newcombe etc.
He is the first teenager since Federer to make to the quarterfinals of a grand slam twice. (2014 Wimbledon and 2015 Australian Open).
The history of very young players making a huge splash in grand slams... as he has done over the last 12 months, is that they go on to win multiple grand slams.
Nadal at 19 won the French...and has 14 grand slams.
Becker won Wimbledon at 17 and won plenty more grand slams. Hewitt... Michael Change.... Federer....Novak.... Agassi..Sampras.... all made big splashes pretty young.
I don't know of any precedent (except maybe Tomic?) for making a big splash at Grand Slam at a very young age, and then failing to win a Grand Slam.
So, if you accept that the chances of Kyrgios winning a grand slam at some time are very very high...then the only question is when.
Again...there is no precedent for a career like his so far to then finally end up winning one late in career like Goran Ivanisivich or Stan Wawrinka.... if you think, he'll win one at some time.... the chances are, that he will win one when he is still very young..in the next year or two, if not in the next week.. like Nadal did, like Hewitt did, Federer and Becker and Novak.
Today... you can get odds of him winning Wimbledon this year at about 29 to 1 and the US open in Sept at 66 to 1.... They strike me as pretty awesome odds for us punters, when we're talking about someone who is highly likely to win a grand slam in the next year or two.
He has already taken out the World No1...Nadal at last years Wimbledon 4th round.... he demolished him. Recently he beat Federer. I reckon his biggest challenge is going to be Novak if they meet in the semi-finals. If he gets there and prevails.... then history says he will win the final, regardless of his opponent.... History shows that young guns who make the final of a grand slam against much more experienced and higher ranked opponents ....almost never lose... Becker, Sampras, Nadal, Hewitt plus Michael Chang who made the French open final as a 17 year old ( off memory) and won it.
That's my thoughts... I've put a little bit on Kyrgios winning Wimbledon, and also put a little on him at the US open at 65:1 .... I just love those odds :-)
PS. Another reason you're justified in having faith in Kyrgios winning slams, is that like Pete Sampras, who won 7 finals at Wimbledon, never losing one....is that they both have an attitude that tips the scales in their favour when their chips are down.
Any number of times Sampras used to be down, 15:40 on his serve then he'd pull out a couple of aces and end up retaining his serve. Winning the big points... the ones that he just had to win, when he was down....was one of his trademarks. Another was closing out matches...avoiding nerves when he was on top...Sampras could always do that.... If you've watched Kyrgios you would have seen him do the same.... saving 9 match points last year against Gasquet was unprecedented......but he did....got out of jail 9 fucking times...and from 2 sets down before that.... Unbelievable.... And then when after 5 sets he had the opportunity to close out.... he put his foot on Gasquets throat....and went for the juggler.
Kyrgios has the mindset of a winner..like Sampras.....he believes he can beat anybody.....he walks on the court like he owns it...... and the never say die of Hewitt....he has the serve of Sampras....and he might even almost have the all court game and sublime touch of Federer and Novak.... and according to McEnroe, he has the attitude of himself 35 years ago..... Players like Kyrgios are very very rare... he's got so many different attributes that come together, in the opinion of some like a perfect tennis storm.... only the future will tell :-) ... but the elements appear to be all there.
I like it when the odds are in your favour. I don't know too many times when that's the case... but looks like one case right now staring us in the face.
Step 1. Figure out about how much you punt on average every week.
Step 2. Don't punt in your usual way this week.... Instead consider a different way, that has a decent chance of giving you most of a years punting $, by foregoing just one week of your normal punting and having a bit of luck.
I'm not generally a betting man. While I've often kicked myself for not betting on Qld for State of Origin ( if you had since 1980 and you bet on Qld every year, you would have done very very well over the 35 years, as they've generally been underdogs and yet prior to 10 years ago, won pretty close to 50% of the games, providing any Qld punter stayer with a healthy underdog return). In fact the only time I ever gambled on sport was on Think Big in 1974 when it won the Melbourne Cup! Off memory it was a $5 bet... can't remember how much I won.
Anyway,
Nick Kyrgios, according to most of the top tennis commentators while obviously not certain, is highly highly likely to win a grand slam tournament sometime. That's pretty much the consensus.... he has what it takes. I couldn't agree more with McEnroe, Newcombe etc.
He is the first teenager since Federer to make to the quarterfinals of a grand slam twice. (2014 Wimbledon and 2015 Australian Open).
The history of very young players making a huge splash in grand slams... as he has done over the last 12 months, is that they go on to win multiple grand slams.
Nadal at 19 won the French...and has 14 grand slams.
Becker won Wimbledon at 17 and won plenty more grand slams. Hewitt... Michael Change.... Federer....Novak.... Agassi..Sampras.... all made big splashes pretty young.
I don't know of any precedent (except maybe Tomic?) for making a big splash at Grand Slam at a very young age, and then failing to win a Grand Slam.
So, if you accept that the chances of Kyrgios winning a grand slam at some time are very very high...then the only question is when.
Again...there is no precedent for a career like his so far to then finally end up winning one late in career like Goran Ivanisivich or Stan Wawrinka.... if you think, he'll win one at some time.... the chances are, that he will win one when he is still very young..in the next year or two, if not in the next week.. like Nadal did, like Hewitt did, Federer and Becker and Novak.
Today... you can get odds of him winning Wimbledon this year at about 29 to 1 and the US open in Sept at 66 to 1.... They strike me as pretty awesome odds for us punters, when we're talking about someone who is highly likely to win a grand slam in the next year or two.
He has already taken out the World No1...Nadal at last years Wimbledon 4th round.... he demolished him. Recently he beat Federer. I reckon his biggest challenge is going to be Novak if they meet in the semi-finals. If he gets there and prevails.... then history says he will win the final, regardless of his opponent.... History shows that young guns who make the final of a grand slam against much more experienced and higher ranked opponents ....almost never lose... Becker, Sampras, Nadal, Hewitt plus Michael Chang who made the French open final as a 17 year old ( off memory) and won it.
That's my thoughts... I've put a little bit on Kyrgios winning Wimbledon, and also put a little on him at the US open at 65:1 .... I just love those odds :-)
PS. Another reason you're justified in having faith in Kyrgios winning slams, is that like Pete Sampras, who won 7 finals at Wimbledon, never losing one....is that they both have an attitude that tips the scales in their favour when their chips are down.
Any number of times Sampras used to be down, 15:40 on his serve then he'd pull out a couple of aces and end up retaining his serve. Winning the big points... the ones that he just had to win, when he was down....was one of his trademarks. Another was closing out matches...avoiding nerves when he was on top...Sampras could always do that.... If you've watched Kyrgios you would have seen him do the same.... saving 9 match points last year against Gasquet was unprecedented......but he did....got out of jail 9 fucking times...and from 2 sets down before that.... Unbelievable.... And then when after 5 sets he had the opportunity to close out.... he put his foot on Gasquets throat....and went for the juggler.
Kyrgios has the mindset of a winner..like Sampras.....he believes he can beat anybody.....he walks on the court like he owns it...... and the never say die of Hewitt....he has the serve of Sampras....and he might even almost have the all court game and sublime touch of Federer and Novak.... and according to McEnroe, he has the attitude of himself 35 years ago..... Players like Kyrgios are very very rare... he's got so many different attributes that come together, in the opinion of some like a perfect tennis storm.... only the future will tell :-) ... but the elements appear to be all there.