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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by miata View Post
    Stop calling other forum members liars without any substantive reasoning. You're coming across as immature and self-righteous.
    pathetic, creating another id and then defending yourself. pathetic parenting got to you.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by bouncybouncy View Post
    There's a reasonable expectation that being vaccinated will reduce the chance of infecting others:
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...690-3/fulltext
    https://theconversation.com/no-vacci...t-covid-171302

    Specifcally -


    The argument is, if you're vaccinated, you carry relatively reduced viral load even if infected, and this translates directly to reduced infectiousness. I'm no expert, just found this on google, open to further evidence... let's hear it.
    "thought to increase"

    a lot is still not known about this disease. a lot of it is still guesswork.

    they say wearing masks is supposed to help. if it were so, why are so many people still getting it ? or do they mean the ones getting it are the ones not wearing masks ?

  3. #23
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    Hi alexchinn.
    I don't think there is much more we can do to help you.
    There is a lot that is known now about Covid and how to treat it, sure we are still fighting it worldwide... but to say it's just "guesswork"?
    Vaccines were developed in record time, other treatments are now also available when hospitalised.
    You may not be aware, the death rate in the elderly has been reduced from about 22% in the beginning to around1.6% now.
    For the <70 yr population in Australia, the death rate was initially around 0.2%. Very low. Now around 0.01% approximately.
    The severe illness and death rates are way lower now.
    None of this is "guesswork".

    BTW: deaths from the flu in 2019 was around 940.

    Can't help you much more than that.
    Last edited by Kowabunga; 28-12-2021 at 10:19 PM. Reason: Making clear as possible for our friend Alexchinn

  4. #24
    Senior Member(無間使者) Scotty from Marketing's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by alexchinn View Post
    "thought to increase"

    a lot is still not known about this disease. a lot of it is still guesswork.

    they say wearing masks is supposed to help. if it were so, why are so many people still getting it ? or do they mean the ones getting it are the ones not wearing masks ?
    Most people catch it in their homes where people don’t wear masks.

    If you walk around a shopping centre observe the following:
    How many people don’t wear masks including children
    Those that wear masks but dont cover their nose. Sure glad I don’t breathe in or out through the nose
    How many fidget with their masks with their filthy fingers

    If you wear your mask, sanitise your hands before putting your hand anywhere near your face and keep socially distant and your chances are heavily minimised. Your home is where you are most likely to catch it though.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kowabunga View Post
    Hi alexchinn.
    I don't think there is much more we can do to help you.
    There is a lot that is known now about Covid and how to treat it, sure we are still fighting it worldwide... but to say it's just "guesswork"?
    Vaccines were developed in record time, other treatments are now also available when hospitalised.
    You may not be aware, the death rate in the elderly has been reduced from about 22% in the beginning to around1.6% now.
    For the <70 yr population in Australia, the death rate was initially around 0.2%. Very low. Now around 0.01% approximately.
    The severe illness and death rates are way lower now.
    None of this is "guesswork".

    BTW: deaths from the flu in 2019 was around 940.

    Can't help you much more than that.
    Care to demonstrate where you pulled those stats out of your ass?

    https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covi...by-age-and-sex

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecchi.gaijin View Post
    Care to demonstrate where you pulled those stats out of your ass?

    https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covi...by-age-and-sex
    I get them from this website from the Australian Department of Health.
    They've been reporting and updating data on cases and deaths broken into deciles ... from the start.

    https://www.health.gov.au/health-ale...and-statistics

    Hope that assists your endeavours.

  7. #27
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    I must be a bit confused then, because the only data I can see on the website you claim to get your information from is for total deaths to date, and the figures don't match your percentages.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by ecchi.gaijin View Post
    I must be a bit confused then, because the only data I can see on the website you claim to get your information from is for total deaths to date, and the figures don't match your percentages.
    They actually don't calculate death rates.
    They provide cases and death stats updated daily.
    I started recording the data early on and calculating the death rate for the "young" and "elderly".
    I noted that most deaths were in the elderly age bracket. Small portion of the cases and most of the deaths.
    Most actually were in Victoria. I think we could have done much better to look after the elderly in a coordinated and controlled way.
    As time progressed, I saved out the aggregated stats up to that point.
    I did that a few times.
    Firstly once vaccinations were ramping up, and again when Omicron appeared.
    Because I have the separate stats up to those times I can separate out the death rates up to and within those periods.
    I'm still waiting for the latest stats to build up ... but overwhelming evidence on the study I've done myself is that the death rate is coming down significantly.

    For me it's a combination of:
    - vaccinations
    - better hospital treatment
    - milder variant.

    What I think from here on is that:
    - focus is now on hospitalisations and not cases.
    - less emphasis on testing and contact tracing.
    - rules around contact tracing and when you get tested etc ... will change.
    - subsequently there will be more people with covid without that being known (like a bigger area under the tip of the iceberg. Bigger than before).
    - most people will catch covid in 2022.

    Saying all that. I'm currently in quarantine awaiting a test result. Fair chance I've got it but not certain.
    Two members of immediate family group are tested positive. One in hospital.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by leon_001 View Post
    good on you for the stats. your older person data should be broken down further, into aged care and not aged care. imo.

    https://www.theklaxon.com.au/home/co...drsarahrussell

    hope your family and you fare well.
    Thanks Leon.
    The data I'd like to see from here is:
    - hospitalisations broken down into vaccinated or not.
    - ICU broken down into vaccinated or not.
    - deaths broken down into broken down into vaccinated or not.
    - - hospitalisations broken down into which variant.
    - ICU broken down into which variant.
    - deaths broken down into broken down into which variant.

    Information is light.

  10. #30
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    Calculating new deaths as a percentage of new case numbers is a flawed analysis. Mortality rate is the number of deaths as a percentage of total resolved cases (recovered + dead). The new infections are yet to be decided whether they will live or die so including them in your analysis makes the results flawed. You are also assuming that the time frame for someone to go from infection/detection to death is a constant.

  11. #31
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    Thanks for the links to the stats peoples - interesting to pawn through them and get some actual facts. I definitely would like to see the death split between number into ICU and deaths based on double vaccinated, single vaccinated, and non vaccinated to get a real picture.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by alexchinn View Post
    "thought to increase"

    a lot is still not known about this disease. a lot of it is still guesswork.

    they say wearing masks is supposed to help. if it were so, why are so many people still getting it ? or do they mean the ones getting it are the ones not wearing masks ?

    That's where stats that have been un-adjusted should answer all those questions - the premier doesn't provide (as far as I'm aware) any information on "the science" they have followed to justify their actions.....
    Last edited by joeblow251; 29-12-2021 at 11:28 PM. Reason: grammar

  13. #33
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    Very informative boys, last place to expect this from lol. Keep it up

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by leon_001 View Post
    you're familiar with this site yeh?

    https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccination-status
    Thanks Leon. This looks good.

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