Originally Posted by
retrospect
Roughly speaking : Population 26 million, infected 12 million, serious 1.8 million, hospitalised 1.4-1.6 million, ICU several hundred thousand, dead over 200k.
The focus needs to be on slowing the spread once it gets here so these cases are spread out over a longer time frame. Even over a year we will be seriously challenged by those numbers. If it gets into the community just before winter that is not favourable.
Cancelling events like Mardi gras and the f1 have obviously huge costs. As does closing borders, etc. The estimates above are best guess with many unknowns and also involve huge costs. Not easy decisions.