Originally Posted by
retrospect
hmmm.
for everyone's information. the virus has now been named SARS-CoV2, or SARS coronavirus type 2. the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been named COVID19 (from coronavirus disease 2019).
now to correct some errors for anyone interested. If you aren't interested, don't read it:
the best test to determine if you are infected is RT-PCR from upper respiratory tract swabs (lower respiratory tract would be even better, but collecting these is not something you would want to do to everyone). RT-PCR detects the viral RNA directly. if you are clear on RT-PCR you are considered not infected. if you have had COVID19 and are negative on RT-PCR from swabs twice you are considered recovered.
A lung x-ray will reveal pneumonia and there are apparently characteristic changes in coronavirus that are not typical of bacterial or other viral pneumonias - our doctors have almost no experience with this but apparently the chinese drs are now able to spot these changes and give a positive diagnosis reliably. if you are clear on lung x-ray that does NOT mean you are not infected.
testing blood is not currently useful. standard blood cultures will certainly show nothing wrt coronavirus. Serological testing of blood for antibodies to the virus would be cheaper and faster than RT-PCR and be as good at diagnosis (at least for symptomatic people) BUT serological testing is not available anywhere yet. culturing the virus is the first step to developing these tests so maybe they will become available soon.
those who think 2% fatality rate is low should get good at maths. 2% of the Australian population is about half a million people. modelling (I don't remember where from, sorry) predicted 60% of the population to become infected in a pandemic. also the fatality rate is not a fixed figure. it varies based on available treatment and other factors. treatment for serious cases consists of keeping you alive (with oxygen and sometimes ventilation) long enough for you to fight off the infection. if we are unable to treat everyone the fatality rate will probably be higher. this is probably what is happening in Wuhan now - people are dying who would live if they had sufficient resources to treat them.
atm, Australia doesn't appear to have any cases. but the world is on the verge of or in the early stages of a pandemic. China is taking incredible action to try to contain a very large epidemic. It may already be wild in India, Thailand, Singapore, and some other SE Asian countries, and maybe Africa. A pandemic is still more likely than containment. But we might contain it. It might mutate to become less virulent. We might develop a vaccine, or we might find an effective antiviral and it becomes an easily treatable infection. Fingers crossed.
What worries me most about this scenario is the economic impact, but that just reveals how people think - I should be more worried that I survive without serious illness. It is just that I can envisage the economic risk more readily.
Happy punting while you still can!