Quote Originally Posted by studsg View Post
Not exactly sure what is Gladys plan for exiting the current lockdown ?

Her target of 6 million doses even if we look at all these as 2 jabs, is just barely 40% of NSW fully vaccinated. If we look at it as 1 jab, the efficacy against Delta is 30% at best. Say we take this 30% off the current daily (abt 300) of new infections, we are still looking at abt 200 new daily infections.

Is there really a clear plan out of this lockdown ?
They think they have a plan but it may change over time.

The National Cabinet (all of 'em) appears to have agreed that rolling lockdowns, short and sharp will be key to suppress any outbreak until at least 70% and 80% vaccine saturation is achieved.

NSW, on the other hand, has lost that opportunity. When fresh cases (infectious in the community) get above 50+ contact tracing is pretty much behind the eight ball. Not due to the tracers but the data flow from contacts is not quick enough, not accurate enough and mostly incomplete. Increasing the number of tracers only has a marginal effect on throughput. People that treat PHO's in a casual manner are not likely to be forthcoming with their activities in a timely manner.

The result is to try and throw a net over as many possible infections as they can, hence the supermarkets becoming exposure sites. Last week there were over 100 sites (now 141 including Bunnings) resulting in massive testing. It's been stated there's only been a handful of cases detected at these sites with Kerry Chant saying they are low risk.

It's unlikely we will get to zero or low new cases at all so expect this lockdown to continue to mid December. It's possible that some restrictions might ease in some locations but this will depend on the vaccination rate which they expect will reach the required figure by then. The govt will subsequently have a big decision to make, I doubt keeping the rolling lockdowns will be one of them, this simply cannot be sustained, but we'll see when we get there.

The hope is getting a shed load of Pfizer by then which will likely bring out customers in droves, especially those below age 40, the cohort lacking in numbers so far. This will very quickly drive the rate higher and give Public Health the ammo to advise accordingly.