Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Riff888

Chinatown was back to it's usual form last night. Not many people walking around with masks on. It feels great, I think people are over it.

The government should lift the travel ban soon.

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Should this be the opposite? Since the ban is working and we're not getting new cases meanwhile in China their numbers are still skyrocketing.

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Originally Posted by Pleck

Hi Riff, on the news this morning it mentioned that a medical journal in the USA has just been released saying that about 40% of people are not being detected positive and that this is in all countries including Aust. Apparently this journal says that only a CT can definitely rule out being positive.

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Actually a CT scan can only show the onset of pneumonia which can be caused by multiple different strains of virus including the coronavirus. But is currently being recommended by WHO as the fastest initial test for classification purposes.

To confirm if a person has ncovid-19 a blood culture test is needed but takes a few days for the results. Plus like you say some people do not present symptoms, that's why only a blood test can tell 100% if a person is infected.

I hope we are safe here in Sydney.

I'm always washing my hands whenever on public transport.

I just hope it's not too damaging to our economy.

But you're right, it's better to be safer because a pandemic would be worse for the economy for many years.

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Originally Posted by hookerbanger

2% mortality rate, stronger dose of flu, just media hype scaremongering

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Yup, this everything has been blown out of proportion. Everything kills you these days...

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Originally Posted by hookerbanger

2% mortality rate, stronger dose of flu, just media hype scaremongering

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Which is roughly 1000x the rate of normal flu. Pretty strong dosage...

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Originally Posted by hookerbanger

2% mortality rate, stronger dose of flu, just media hype scaremongering

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Try explain all that to the people on board the Diamond Princess ?

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Originally Posted by studsg

Actually a CT scan can only show the onset of pneumonia which can be caused by multiple different strains of virus including the coronavirus. But is currently being recommended by WHO as the fastest initial test for classification purposes.

To confirm if a person has ncovid-19 a blood culture test is needed but takes a few days for the results. Plus like you say some people do not present symptoms, that's why only a blood test can tell 100% if a person is infected.

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Sorry I made a mistake. This was actually from the chief of infectious diseases in the UK

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Originally Posted by Riff888

I hope we are safe here in Sydney.

I'm always washing my hands whenever on public transport.

I just hope it's not too damaging to our economy.

But you're right, it's better to be safer because a pandemic would be worse for the economy for many years.

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Our economy is in deep trouble but we are not told much. We are also taking a big hit with corona virus and the fires which haven't really sunk in yet money wise.

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Originally Posted by Pleck

Our economy is in deep trouble but we are not told much. We are also taking a big hit with corona virus and the fires which haven't really sunk in yet money wise.

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Don't need to be told the economy is bad. Just look at the retail shops are closing and wages not increasing. Even without the bushfire and Covid-19 virus the economy is not doing well.

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Originally Posted by Pleck

Our economy is in deep trouble but we are not told much. We are also taking a big hit with corona virus and the fires which haven't really sunk in yet money wise.

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Yep, a possible recession on the way maybe?

I just read that HSBC is in big trouble with profits down 33% last year and they are looking to axe 35k jobs.

All the trouble in HK, plus the virus and the attack on Huawei. Things just don't add up.

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Retrospect terrific summary thank you.

There is also a compelling account from an infectious disease expert who visited the Diamond Princess. It shows how being reliant on "authorities" and "officials" can be a recipe for disaster. Clearly there was poor infection control protocol on the ship which explains why so many pax became infected. There was no-one actually in charge of infection control. He tried to assist with pretty obvious suggestions but was turned away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHY...4bvp22onJ-mOYo

Update: The YouTube link has been censored and removed. How is it hat these global tech social media companies allow mass murderers to live stream their antics but censor an infectious disease expert comments on a looming pandemic?

If you like conspiracy theories there are many, but my favorite is the lady who was selling animals from the Wuhan Virology Lab to the live animal market.

Take care folks - stay safe.

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Originally Posted by Climax598

Don't need to be told the economy is bad. Just look at the retail shops are closing and wages not increasing. Even without the bushfire and Covid-19 virus the economy is not doing well.

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I was responding to Riff, it wasn't a general comment...

I'm glad that most in here are concerned and about this and don't just think its fluff/fear mongering generated by the media for ratings. If China responded by locking down cities and it's allies closed borders faster than Subways in Australia then it's a pretty good indication that it's not a just a bit more contagious and deadly than the seasonal flu. Best look and analyse the things they do rather than what they say.

2500 by the end of the month.

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Originally Posted by hookerbanger

Headless chicken panicking for nothing. End of the world bu##sh##.
News flash - The flu has killed more than 10000 in the US. By end end of the Flu season 15000 Americans will die, now compare that to the new virus.

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What's with the smug intellectual dishonesty? Roughly 8% of the US population gets the flu each flu season or roughly 26,000,000 people. Now compare that to the number of people infected with corona.

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Originally Posted by hookerbanger

Headless chicken panicking for nothing. End of the world bu##sh##.
News flash - The flu has killed more than 10000 in the US. By end end of the Flu season 15000 Americans will die, now compare that to the new virus.

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Yep, all the experts, journalists, the WHO, entire governments of countries, all got it wrong, but some guy called hookerbanger on an internet forum got it right.

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Originally Posted by retrospect

hmmm.
for everyone's information. the virus has now been named SARS-CoV2, or SARS coronavirus type 2. the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been named COVID19 (from coronavirus disease 2019).

now to correct some errors for anyone interested. If you aren't interested, don't read it:

the best test to determine if you are infected is RT-PCR from upper respiratory tract swabs (lower respiratory tract would be even better, but collecting these is not something you would want to do to everyone). RT-PCR detects the viral RNA directly. if you are clear on RT-PCR you are considered not infected. if you have had COVID19 and are negative on RT-PCR from swabs twice you are considered recovered.

A lung x-ray will reveal pneumonia and there are apparently characteristic changes in coronavirus that are not typical of bacterial or other viral pneumonias - our doctors have almost no experience with this but apparently the chinese drs are now able to spot these changes and give a positive diagnosis reliably. if you are clear on lung x-ray that does NOT mean you are not infected.

testing blood is not currently useful. standard blood cultures will certainly show nothing wrt coronavirus. Serological testing of blood for antibodies to the virus would be cheaper and faster than RT-PCR and be as good at diagnosis (at least for symptomatic people) BUT serological testing is not available anywhere yet. culturing the virus is the first step to developing these tests so maybe they will become available soon.

those who think 2% fatality rate is low should get good at maths. 2% of the Australian population is about half a million people. modelling (I don't remember where from, sorry) predicted 60% of the population to become infected in a pandemic. also the fatality rate is not a fixed figure. it varies based on available treatment and other factors. treatment for serious cases consists of keeping you alive (with oxygen and sometimes ventilation) long enough for you to fight off the infection. if we are unable to treat everyone the fatality rate will probably be higher. this is probably what is happening in Wuhan now - people are dying who would live if they had sufficient resources to treat them.

atm, Australia doesn't appear to have any cases. but the world is on the verge of or in the early stages of a pandemic. China is taking incredible action to try to contain a very large epidemic. It may already be wild in India, Thailand, Singapore, and some other SE Asian countries, and maybe Africa. A pandemic is still more likely than containment. But we might contain it. It might mutate to become less virulent. We might develop a vaccine, or we might find an effective antiviral and it becomes an easily treatable infection. Fingers crossed.

What worries me most about this scenario is the economic impact, but that just reveals how people think - I should be more worried that I survive without serious illness. It is just that I can envisage the economic risk more readily.

Happy punting while you still can!

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For what it's worth, awesome post, Retro.
This epidemic is turning out to be a real "black swan" event for the economy. It doesn't even have to be a pandemic to wreak economic havoc, only the fact that the epicenter is in the middle of China is enough.
And I don't understand why this new virus is being compared mainly to SARS but not to the 2009 swine flu pandemic. That was more recent, allowing for the effects of more widespread travel to be accounted for. How many budget Airlines were there in 2002 vs 2009?
The 2009 swine flu killed an estimated 500k people in total, 37k in Australia alone.
What has not happened before is a flu epidemic of the same scale as SARS/swine flu/coronavirus hitting the economy when it is at or near bubble territory. I mean, SARS hit right after the dotcom bubble burst and the 2009 Swine flu hit right after the GFC, so both are not good indicators of this scenario. Now coronavirus hits exactly when there is a lot of money in the world chasing ever inflating assets, interest rates being at rock bottom ... What's going to happen?

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Originally Posted by retrospect

those who think 2% fatality rate is low should get good at maths. 2% of the Australian population is about half a million people.

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So true. That's 1 in 50 people. Even just 1% more would mean 1 in 33 people, a big difference.

By the way it looks like more aged people are dying instead of the young and healthy, which sounds like it discounts the cytokine storm theory. However I couldn't find any infected by age group page on the site.

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Originally Posted by CockoftheRoot

Australia had 37,000 confirmed infections and according to the ABS, 77 deaths...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009...c_in_Australia

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Thank you for correcting my mistake, but that Wikipedia page is outdated. The number has been revised to 190 deaths in Australia from 2009 swine flu.

I'm wondering what is it like in Thailand and whether there have been any deaths. With so much sex on offer and physical contact you would expect it would be spreading quickly in most capitals.

164 Australian passengers returning from the Diamond Princess currently in quarantine - 2 have just tested positive, Australia now have 17 confirmed cases

And sudden increase cases in South Korea?!?!
Imagine Ginza without Korean and Chinese girls... Oh....

China is probably starting to plateau, but it is just the start for the other countries... :(

Expected to see a lot more face masks in Hurstville. Not many really. Restaurant manger told me turnover down 70% which is terrible. Commentators telling people to get out and support your local Chinatown and don’t discriminate. I would have thought 50-70% of business in a Chinatown is from fellow Chinese

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Originally Posted by Sabotage

Expected to see a lot more face masks in Hurstville. Not many really. Restaurant manger told me turnover down 70% which is terrible. Commentators telling people to get out and support your local Chinatown and don’t discriminate. I would have thought 50-70% of business in a Chinatown is from fellow Chinese

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Face masks don't prevent absorption through the eyes which is a proven form of transmission