Not if you reveal it after you place your betQuote:
Originally Posted by BDU
Printable View
Not if you reveal it after you place your betQuote:
Originally Posted by BDU
So you want me to only bet Fixed Price and modify my betting schedule so I can let you know what to back to make money...Quote:
Originally Posted by Raybo
Sounds like a super offer but I will PASS.....
Wasn't a great Saturday , no standout winners above $17 other than a failed 2nd place one at $60 and half a dozen $8 to $13 winners.
Who knows one day I might be in the right mood to give you guys a leg up.
Happy to tip u the ones I don't intend backing
Haha, I don't want you to do anything!Quote:
Originally Posted by BDU
Sounds like I would ignore most of your tips anyway!
The RAMA roughie 24/3/23
Melbourne Race 3 No 16 Black Penn
My roughie
Melbourne Race 8 No 6 Not an Option
Betting W +4.5 P +2.5
Giddy Up
Thanks for the comments on the thread. Today we have the situation that made this tip quite famous. It was nominated at 7.30 this morning on RSN 927. On TAB today it has firmed FO from 11.00 to 6.50. Not so rough anymoe 😡
I have noticed in the tipping that we now have 3 winners at there next start. Frustrating, but I hope everyone at least followed their tips just one more time. Like all things moderation is best 👍
Congrats on getting a winner up.
Exactly Raybo, there is no need to ever take a tip from anyone, everyone should do their own thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raybo
Still you cannot follow my tip if I never tell you and that is pretty much the point.
I have tried to educate tipsters over the years, most recently Brad Davidson. The guy makes me laugh with his insane comments and he honestly believes the tripe he spouts. For some reason he thinks he is a God when he tips 5 out 10 at a meeting. I mean honestly, get a grip, that is a pass mark.
However he is a pretty good form analyst and he has some modest success but 14% profit on 2K of bets per meeting is not anything to get excited about.
Like most tipsters he ignores 2/3 rd of the field when doing analysis and draws illogical conclusions. So by all means listen to what he says but make your own determination.
There is a massive chasm between form analysis and tipping. Analysis works best for major races only as all the form is usually relatable but tipping is simply identifying which horse is ready to win on that day, form plays only a small part in that.
I can usually tell you with certainty who he is going to pick in any given race. Too predictable.
My Saturday was another slowish one, picked up a few thousand from a combined outlay of about $250 but I gamble every day so it just funds my week.
Picked up around 1.5K on Sunday from about $50 worth of bets mainly thanks to an 18-1 into an 80-1 winner but missed both trifectas which peed me off.
Would normally have got stuck into Happy Valley as well but I was a bit too annoyed with the days gambling. There is always an easy 4 or 5 winners there.
Not bothering today as only one meeting on, it is a hobby, keeps me busy and pays for my mistresses.
Been at this for over 50 years and spend at least 20-30 mins a day doing form at about 5mins per meeting.
On the other end I have some horrid runs of losing, thought about quitting last October as I had gone 5 weeks without a 2K plus collect.
Apologies for dominating your thread....
Once again congrats on the weekend tip.
I can always pick the winner before the start of the race and watch it come home in first place. As soon as I place money down, well there is no happy ending for me!
Even you would have struggled to back a winner at Happy Valley yesterday, considering they raced at Sha Tin.Quote:
Originally Posted by BDU
Don't worry I would have backed every winner at HV in that case.
I guess it explains how pissed of I was with the day. Didn't even look at the fields or the track.
Yeah, turning $50 into $1500, I would have spat the dummy, grabbed my bat and ball and went home too!Quote:
Originally Posted by BDU
Are your expectations so low in all aspects of life? Or is it just in gambling.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raybo
There is nothing special about turning 50 into 1500. Equivalent to having 50 on a 30's winner. At least a weekly event.
I was pissed because I missed the comparatively easy trifecta that paid 16K had the first 4 across the line but 2nd and 3rd the wrong way and effed up a few other bets on the day. Did similar on Saturday.
Should have been a much better day. I don't gamble when I am not in the right frame of mind so I stopped. Chemo tends to scramble the brain a bit unfortunately.
I am sorry to hear about your cancer and chemo treatment. Hope it works and keeps the cancer in check. You continue to amaze me, the few people I know that underwent chemo treatment could hardly get out of bed, let alone service several mistresses weekly. Good on you!Quote:
Originally Posted by BDU
All good my man, managed to keep working right through it but I certainly could not think clearly without a lot of effort or do anything particular physical like walking up and down a few flights of stairs. Makes it hard when you are doing technically challenging work for sure.
Finished now and in remission but it takes up to a couple of years to get over all the effects. There are still a few odd things my body does not do properly and my brain gets foggy now and then.
The mistresses are probably a reaction to thinking you are about to die, better to enjoy what time you have left. Mind you I don't expect to be dying anytime soon, about a 66% chance to go another 20+ yrs.
Off topic ...but....
There is ahorse running today called Puissy Galore at Balaklava.
By Puissance de Lune out of Aberfeldy
Wouldn't ATM be a perfect name
The RAMA roughie 1/4/23
Melbourne R6 No 7 Highland Hill
My roughie
Melbourne R8 No 1 Inspirational Girl
Betting W +3.5 P +5.0
Giddy Up
Love a top weight roughie. Good luck. I will have a look later tonight. Love race days like tomorrow! When you say betting and +x.x is this × your normal betting unit?Quote:
Originally Posted by trampslikeus55
Good punting on a Super Saturday 💪💪Quote:
Originally Posted by Raybo
The Betting is just the return for the RAMA roughie. It is done as a unit of 1, not a $ value. You are the determiner of the unit. So at present if you were Betting $10 E/W per week you would be $85.00 in front. I made an error with last week's place win so I have raised it by 2.5 and not 1. Correction made.
As for my Betting strategies, we are a lot alike. I was a long time doubles player but the pools have been evaporating over the years, so now I am with the mob. Mainly multi win or multi place. I subscribe to Oz Racing (David Gately) and mainly bet in Melbourne. I also tend to wait and load up on track/racing patterns happening on the day. This was truly where Deane Lester shined. BDU wrote in an earlier piece about picking the right horse on the right day and that has a lot of merit. Reality dictates that form is about what the horse has done lastly or before. The ability to understand what the horse will do next will get you the results. And finally, a lot of horses that should have won, don't, either through field luck or a bad ride. This is why rather than cursing your judgement you watch replies and see what when wrong. Perfect example is Flourescent Star. Would have won by 2, but the human error put the jockey in hospital and killed the horse. Just tragic. Good luck and good punting 🐎🐎
I started learning how to frame a market about 30 years ago. I only concentrated on Saturday meetings in Sydney and Melbourne, occasionally Brisbane and Adelaide. I would have to keep an eye on mid-week city results and big provincial and country meetings. Much like BDU/Soton said, pure form analysis works best with higher quality racing.Quote:
Originally Posted by trampslikeus55
With the help of technology, what took me 8 hours back then I can do in about an hour these days. I am essentially looking for horses paying more than I rate them and generally looking at my top two or three raters, occasionally wider in bog fields for each way and exotic bets. I also frame a market at 80-90%, so when I am looking at prices from bookmakers or TAB, I know I am getting value because their market is framed at 115% plus.
With that in mind, I don't get the opportunity to back roughies too often if I follow the letter of the law. Markets are much tighter these days too. Also, my methods generally reap 3 or 4 worthy bets most days. Sometimes, if I get odds of say $3.50, then that could be tremendous value if I rate them a $2.30 chance.
Getting back to top weights or No1 in a field, I wouldn't stop anyone betting on these ones at Randwick tomorrow, all good value in my eyes.
R3. No1 Stockman $9.00
R7. No1 Nature Strip $5.50
R8. No1 Alligator Blood $10.00
The RAMA roughie 22/4/23
Hawkesbury Race 8 No 4 Tycoon Evie
My roughie
Mornington Race 8 No 4 Gear Up
Betting W 2.5 P 2.5
Giddy Up
Been quiet but RSN had Easter off [?] and last week was scratched. Tipster last couple of weeks has been David Gately and so we have Sydney horses. Tip is now at 8/1 so not so roughie but hopefully a winner anyway. Happy punting to all 👍
The RAMA roughie 29/4/23
Melbourne Race 4 No 2 Castillian
My roughie
Melbourne Race 10 No 10 Cuban Link
Betting W 1.5 P 1.5
Giddy Up 🐎🐎🐎
The RAMA roughie 6/5/23
Melbourne Race 5 No 10 Thought Provoking.
My roughie.
Melbourne Race 6 No 11 Grey Northern
Betting W 0.5 P 0.5
Giddy Up 🐎🐎🐎
Did I see you say you were using David Gately tips?
Probably the least knowledgable of the quartet at Sky and rarely tips anything over 6-1.
I know it is easy to write what I do without giving you tips to prove it so the next best thing is a bet receipt from Sunday. It was believe it or not the only bet I took on sunday. I would not normally have so many short priced runners but Seydoux and Tallu were london to brick chances that I could not ignore.Attachment 97427
As for last Saturday I decided to do something I do not normally do and that was to back all my on top selections at Gosford,Sandown, Morphettville and Sunshine Coast (unless they were 5's or under) just to prove a point to myself. Ending up being an expensive day with my normal Trifectas,Quinellas and Quaddies as well I outlayed around $500.
That was $10 on the nose on approx 32 races and $30 on my best bet plus the aforementioned exotics.
Collected $2200 from the Win bets and another $500+ from the exotics. My best bet was Chassis and I managed to get Fixed odds of 30-1. Also backed Esti Feny (34) and Pintoff (14) and Chrysaor (12) and Alburq (9) and a fair few others.
Funnily enough I originally left out Chrysaor and Alburq 'cos I thought they would start well under 5's.
So a 650% return on tips. Compare that to Brad Davidson who thinks he is the king because he has about a 14% return. Sunday was as you can see a $28 outlay for a $2100 return - 750% return.
Before you ask, no it is not a one off either. I gamble for fun and with small investments and enjoy the thrill of a big win for little outlay. I do not gamble to specifically make money.
Good work Soton.
Makes me feel the need to get in the act.
Scone R10 Sat - Salire is almost a put in take out chance. Barring any track bias as he really gets back and flies home. Quinella it with Cecilia.
BTW I'll vote for Flindell as the worst of the four he talked up Azula on Wednesday and made a pretty good case for it to be a cert then tipped it 4th. Luckily I already had it at 12-1 started 7's.
He also pays way more attention to his tips in the call than he needs to. Just call the race pal.
That picture you posted looks like all the horse racing bet scam posts you get on social media feeds if you show an interest in horse racing, promising free tips and the like if you subscribe. All BS. I would bet a lot of money if you actually started announcing your tips before the fact your strike rate would fall dramatically.Quote:
Originally Posted by Soton
it's probably best to keep them to yourself in that dreamworld you live in. You make betting on horses like shelling peas........
Yep my dreamworld that includes bet receipts as proof....lol....better get that tomato sauce analysed next time you have a burger......cannot be too sure how real it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raybo
It is a shared receipt of a bet slip out of Sportsbet.
You are just one of those people that wants life handed to him on a plate. I mean seriously...
Why on earth would I share my tips with you?
Just posted it to prove a point but some people just cannot be satisfied I guess.
Mate if I posted all my tips u would seriously cream your panties. Very rare I do not have at least one 25s + winner every day.
My secret is simple but very hard to replicate.
IQ over 210
Analytical and logical genius
Photographic memory
50 year understanding of horse behaviour
50 year in depth knowledge of corruption in racing
More common sense than the entire population of Canberra.
If only my dick was a bit bigger.....
BTW Bdu and I do know each other, dating thai sisters for starters but John Edward is not my second handle. Keep trying and u might find it.