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Preferment is one of the best local, Hills Stakes and Turnbull win was excellent, love Flemington, VRC Derby winner last year. By Zabeel who had already produced three Cup Winners ! With Hugh Bowman and Chris Waller, they are on Fire! If he wins tomorrow , I'll collect $2,000 + .Quote:
Originally Posted by carmen farquis
Happy to just sit back and watch and no bet on Trifecta ........haha, only kidding !
Quote:
Originally Posted by carmen farquis
Just on Almoonqith , he is also a must have in all the multis:
He is by the same sire as Americain, he also came through the Geelong Cup. His grand Sire is Roberto, who had already produced a Cup winner in At Talaq, wearing the same colour and trained my David Hayes father the late Colin Hayes ! Top three chances !
just rediscovered this, i remember last years tips were on point!!!
OK, this is it, the Melbourne Cup of 2015 !
A very open field with lots of chances. Once again, the oversea horses have accounted for half of the field, and this is Not counting horses that were from overseas but now trained by local trainers.
You can pick half a dozen horses and could still miss the winner and it probably won't surprise as nearly half the field have genuine to reasonable chances of winning or running into the placings.
So, where do we start ?
Firstly, out of all the oversea trained horses who have been successful since Vintage Crop in 93, there is a very significant common factor: they have all had a run in Australia and run well:
Media Puzzle won the Geelong Cup
Delta Blues ran 3rd in the Caulfield Cup
Americain won the Geelong Cup
Dunaden won the Geelong Cup
Protectionist had a big run in the Herbert Power
So, for this winning formula:
We have to pick Trip to Paris and Fame Game - they are now the top two favourites
Then you have the locally trained horses who have top WFA forms and they came through the Cox Plate
Jeune, Saintly, Makybe Diva, Efficient, Green Moon, Fiorente
So we add Criterion and Preferment
Then one of my personal selection criteria (an omen !)
The horses that had run well or placed in previous Cups:
The good old Red Cadeaux and Who Shot Thebarman
Now, all these horses are pretty much in the market, so we shall look for some values for the Trifecta
For this I will look at the bottom half of field for some light weight hopes:
I have picked Bondi Beach (no sentimental reason, but if Lloyd Williams had bought a major shares into this horse, he must know something we don't), this is a 4 year old in the Northern hemisphere but he is still a 3 yr old in our time, think about another 4 yr old called Adelaide who came here last year and won the Cox Plate !
And The United States, he ran a track record to win the Mooney Valley Gold Cup and has the same sire as Bondi Beach in Galileo - a noted sire of stayers. and same ownership too !!
It hurts to exclude horses like Our Ivanhowe, Hartnell, Max Dynamite, The Offer and Excess Knowledge and a few other European horses, but you simply can't tip them all, so we will need some luck and hopefully these eight horses are good enough to fight off the others :
So, Ahlungor Melbourne Cup Tips for 2015:
2 Criterion $16.20
3 Fame Game $7.00
9 Red Cadeaux $19.50
10 Trip to Paris $5.90
11 Who Shot Thebarman $15.30
15 Preferment $8.90
17 Almoonqith $22.70
20 Bondi Beach $25.00
22 The United States $28.00
Good luck to us all.
Cheers
ps. I wish I win some money so that I could try the Nuru Massage - or I can stop now and Not bet any trifecta and I can punt any where I like - Not a chance !!..............haha
:shout:
ps 2, I went back and included Almoonqith ! I have to tip 9 horses this time, it will cost $504.00 for 1 unit to box or $252 for half unit.
ahlungor, if u had to cut it to 8 horses, would 17 be the unlucky one?
Quote:
Originally Posted by xxxoxo
If you must cut it down to 8, take out no.2 Criterion !! and keep 17.
Criterion is probably the best horse in Australia until Winx blowed the Cox Plate field off the water - no doubt about his class but there is a slight query on whether he can stay the 3,200 metre.
But Almoonqith is a dead set stayer, he has the same sire as Americain and their grand sire is Roberto who had also sired a Cup winner in At Talaq, and on Almoonqith's dam side, there are full of staying blue bloods: Mr Prospector, Blushing Groom, Nijinski, Seatle Slew, etc. I will be most surprised if he can't stay the two miles. So yes, prefer Almoonqith to Criterion !!
Cheers
hmm, good points, thx brother!
There is another omen, 17 people were viewing this thread just now !! :cool2:Quote:
Originally Posted by xxxoxo
What happened lol. I'm glad I didn't put anything on the cup this year.
Very tragic but last year the horse (Admire Rakti) I bet on had a heart attack.
Well, what can you do when a 100-1 chance wins the Cup !!
All credit to Michelle Payne, history in the making for a lady jockey to win the Cup.
At least now we know Criterion can actually stay the two miles !! :smile:
its tough, but even worse when my $5 random pick is one horse off. $26k dividend :'(
I'd like to ride Michelle Payne :)
It was a classic Aussie sporting story; 100/1 roughie wins, first female jockey to win, the strapper is her brother with Down's Syndrome, the part owners (only a 10% stake) are a bunch of blokes who bought the horse without telling their wives.
make that two................hahaQuote:
Originally Posted by Kaylie
But for an industry so dominated by male, it's really great to see a lovely lady to win the big one !!
I suppose just as well the horse is a 100-1 shot, if he is in the market, she will be most likely to be pushed away and make way for a more experienced male jockey like a Boss, or Bowman or Oliver !!
But hey, no one is gonna to replace her now !!
And what a wonderful story with Michelle and her brother Stevie who suffers from down syndrome !! he has now trapper a Melbourne Cup winner !!
http://resources0.news.com.au/images...d865867213.jpg
And for the first time in 50 years where there is no Bart on the first Tuesday in November, with Michelle Payne, there were some Bart connections too, it was Bart back in 2009 who gave Michelle her first win in a Group 1 race on board Allez Wonder in the Toorak Handicap.
http://images.theage.com.au/ftage/ff..._470x408,0.jpg
And subsequently gave Michelle her first ride in the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup in the same year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rooter
Couldn't agree more, and when my horses were not winning, I much rather it was her than that international big name Frankie L Dettori !!
And her sister Cathy isn't too bad either !!
http://cache3.asset-cache.net/gc/539...Dnc%2BmA%3D%3D
The horse must have been running a dud in its career to get 100/1 odds.
It is a tough long race. Where does it suddenly get the athletic ability to beat all the other horses in a sprint at the end of two miles? Where was this athletic talent before? It is almost like me suddenly able to beat usain bolt.
I can't invent athletic talent - how does the horse? It earned those long odds somehow. Or does its odds mean it was carrying no lead and that alone makes all the difference?
I know as much about horse racing as I do about american football. Doesn't stop me airing my opinions / ignorance though! :shout:
Or maybe to qualify for the prestigious Melbourne cup a horse has to have a running history good enough, and the long odds only reflect its relative strength against the favoured horses with even better histories. That is, put the Pirates of Penzance in race no.6 at Doomben and its odds might be only 3 / 1 !
Now why didn't some of you horse heads tell me that instead of letting me continue to bask in my ignorance.
Boo hoo hoo, maybe I'm just doomed to kill conversations stone dead with my contributions. :cry:
Fair comments !Quote:
Originally Posted by Sextus
Basically, the Prince has never raced in a two miles race , so his ability is unknown - same with the third horse Criterion. But through out their respective racing career , the Prince has only done an Ok job so far. While Criterion had won a Derby, QE Stakes, Caulfield Stakes, all group 1's and over $6 M in prize money and his last start ran second in the Cox plate while the Prince ran second in the MV Gold Cup which is a couple grades below !
And hence the different in prices !!
Then all of a sudden , they both run in the Cup for the first time and of course both are running a strong race , in the end, Criteriin carries 57.5 kg vs the Prince was on 52kg, so that the different I guess!
Rest assured , if both horses shall ever meet again in the Cup, their weight will be much closer and you won't get 100 to 1 again !
First 4 was paying 300k. That's a lot of punting
Michelle Payne wins again today at Flemington ! Got the winner and trifecta and first 4, not enough to ease the pain on Tuesday but pay for a few sessions none the less !
I do have an omen tip for myself only on race 8: No 15 Spanish Love! It's 71 to 1 chance but got to put $5.00 each way on !!.........haha
Wish me luck !