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The Melbourne Cup is a notoriously hard race to pick a winner in.
Factors that make it hard to pick a winner are:
It's over 3200 metres and very few races are run over this distance so it's hard to know if horses will stay the distance.
With the international horses, we know little about how they will race in Australia and adapt to our conditions.
There are 24 horses running which is a huge field.
The barrier a horse draws is important with such a huge field of horses.
Most of the horses have excellent credentials; that's why they are here. So there are very few horses you can totally write off.
Anyway good luck punters!

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Originally Posted by rooter

I don't like the favourite Almandi.
Horses very rarely win back to back Cups, and Frankie Dettori's form at the Cup is terrible.
The next four favourites all look good Humidor, Johannes Vermeer, Marmelo, and Wall of Fire.
I can't see anyone other horse winning it.
Best long shot: Big Duke.

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Mate, I think you may have just named the Trifecta of the race there and you should include Almandin in your top 3 as well:

2, 3, 5, 7, 13 & 20 . It's only $120 for the box Trifecta ! Add another $180 for a 50% First 4!

Why not? And good luck

Cheers

As 20 is scratched from race can you share a new combination for trifecta

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Originally Posted by deep123

As 20 is scratched from race can you share a new combination for trifecta

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Mate, #20 is Wall of Fire, where do you heat that its scratched??

OK, it's Melbourne Cup time, here is my tip for the Trifecta this year:

Boxed 8 horses will cost you $336.00 or $168.00 for half unit, good luck everyone, may we all win something tomorrow:


2. Almandin, last year's winner, hard to win again with more weights but it's a proven winner so must include.

3. Humidor, unmissable Cox Plate form and should be an each way certainty. people keep questioning if he can stay the 2 miles, but he is by the Galileo line out of a Zabeel mare, if that breeding can't stay, I don't know what can ?

5. Marmelo, best credential overseas horse with a good run in the Caulfield Cup, a proven forumla.

6. Red Cardinal, drawn the car park but has Kerrin McEvoy, 2 miles specialist

7. Johannes Vermeer, not tested in 2 miles but Williams won't bring him here if he doesn't think he can stay, they certainly know this better. two runs in Caulfield is the best guide.

20. Wall of Fire, second in the Herbert Power and drop 5 kg for this, that Herbert Power could be the best staying form this Spring, think Protectionist a few years back.

22. Rekindling, tipped by Hayley Moore so he is good enough for me.

23. Amelie's Star, forgive the Caulfield Cup run and her previous win in the Bart Cummings (2500M) has Almandin 2016 written all over it. Same as Humirdor - also by a Zabeel mare and brother Travelmate tipped her so I have to include.


For those of you who like to include some more outsiders, you can bet it this way:


Take 3. Humidor, 5. Marmelo and 20. Wall of Fire as rolling bankers and take the following horses as a standout Trifecta:

So you mark your ticket this way:

1st: 3, 5, 20

2nd: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 15, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23

3rd: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 15, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23

One unit is also around $330.00

But if you are betting this way, it is advisable to do a rolling bankers and bet the 3, 5, 20 as first for 50% ($165.00) and then 3, 5, 20 as second for 25% ($82.5) and again 3, 5, 20 as third for 25%.

This way, all you need is for at least of one 3, 5 and 20 to run into a placing and you should have a good win. and if they run the trifecta then you win on all three tickets.


Good luck to you all.

Cheers

I haven't been betting on the horses for a few years but used to frame my own markets and back my top rating horses that were paying overs. Amelie's Star looks to me like a real value bet. It was ridden 'upside down' last start and didn't have it's customary dash at the end of the race. Its got a very under-rated jockey with no weight. Should get a good run with cover.

Sorry never ever bet and trying to learn.. so have account at tab. I log in go to Melbourne cup and select trifecta and input nos 2, 3,5,6,7,20, 22 and 23 under 1st/box and then manually bet for $336. I have flexi 100% and multiplier activated. .whats that for ? Apologies trying to learn this art 😀

Ah, so complicated. I remember at KC on Melbourne Cup they sell $2 tickets and I spent $10 on five random numbers. Of course I got nothing, :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AHLUNGOR

OK, it's Melbourne Cup time, here is my tip for the Trifecta this year:

Boxed 8 horses will cost you $336.00 or $168.00 for half unit, good luck everyone, may we all win something tomorrow:


2. Almandin, last year's winner, hard to win again with more weights but it's a proven winner so must include.

3. Humidor, unmissable Cox Plate form and should be an each way certainty. people keep questioning if he can stay the 2 miles, but he is by the Galileo line out of a Zabeel mare, if that breeding can't stay, I don't know what can ?

5. Marmelo, best credential overseas horse with a good run in the Caulfield Cup, a proven forumla.

6. Red Cardinal, drawn the car park but has Kerrin McEvoy, 2 miles specialist

7. Johannes Vermeer, not tested in 2 miles but Williams won't bring him here if he doesn't think he can stay, they certainly know this better. two runs in Caulfield is the best guide.

20. Wall of Fire, second in the Herbert Power and drop 5 kg for this, that Herbert Power could be the best staying form this Spring, think Protectionist a few years back.

22. Rekindling, tipped by Hayley Moore so he is good enough for me.

23. Amelie's Star, forgive the Caulfield Cup run and her previous win in the Bart Cummings (2500M) has Almandin 2016 written all over it. Same as Humirdor - also by a Zabeel mare and brother Travelmate tipped her so I have to include.


For those of you who like to include some more outsiders, you can bet it this way:


Take 3. Humidor, 5. Marmelo and 20. Wall of Fire as rolling bankers and take the following horses as a standout Trifecta:

So you mark your ticket this way:

1st: 3, 5, 20

2nd: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 15, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23

3rd: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 15, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23

One unit is also around $330.00

But if you are betting this way, it is advisable to do a rolling bankers and bet the 3, 5, 20 as first for 50% ($165.00) and then 3, 5, 20 as second for 25% ($82.5) and again 3, 5, 20 as third for 25%.

This way, all you need is for at least of one 3, 5 and 20 to run into a placing and you should have a good win. and if they run the trifecta then you win on all three tickets.


Good luck to you all.

Cheers

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Originally Posted by Babycat

Ah, so complicated. I remember at KC on Melbourne Cup they sell $2 tickets and I spent $10 on five random numbers. Of course I got nothing, :)

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Hi Baby, what you did at KC is called a sweeps of the Cup, it's a great Aussie office tradition and the beauty is, some one from the office will be guaranteed winners and no money lost to the TAB.

The sweeps usually will have 24 tickets, each can be sold from $1.00 to $10 or more depending on the size of the office and how much people in general are willing to pay.

Say it's a $2.00 sweep, so the total prize pool would be $48.00 ($2 x 24 horses), the person who got the first horse would probably get $22, 2nd $12, 3rd $7.00 , 4th $5.00and the last horse $2.00 money back . It's good clean fun.

But there are organizations who runs very expensive sweeps, like in a football club, they could be selling thousands of tickets at $100 each , then they draw the lucky 24 tickets where the ticket holder can draw a horse from the sweeps. The winning prize could be something big !

Many years ago I knew someone who is a Essendon Bombers supporter and from the footy club sweeps he won a brand new Porsche when Kiwi won the Melbourne Cup - true story.

Cheers

My top two picks are Marmelo and Wall of Fire.
I will include Tiberion, Boom Time, Single Gaze and Almandin in quinellas and Tri's.
Good Luck.

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Originally Posted by deep123

Sorry never ever bet and trying to learn.. so have account at tab. I log in go to Melbourne cup and select trifecta and input nos 2, 3,5,6,7,20, 22 and 23 under 1st/box and then manually bet for $336. I have flexi 100% and multiplier activated. .whats that for ? Apologies trying to learn this art 😀

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Yeap, you did the right thing. $336 for 100% of the Trifecta pay out, good luck to us !

What the Flexi means is that if you don't want to bet the full amount, you could do a 50% at $168 or simply put in the amount you want to bet like $50, $100 etc and the computer will calculate the winning percentage for you.

Cheers

Thanks. What is the best bet to get maximum return and how much can I bet. Any tips on 1, 2 and 3 :)

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Originally Posted by deep123

Thanks. What is the best bet to get maximum return and how much can I bet. Any tips on 1, 2 and 3 :)

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Are you asking about Hartnell, Almandin and Humidor ?

Well, they are probably the best three horses over a distant in Australia at the moment outside of Winx of course, but Winx is not running here.

Hartnell is now trained by James Cummings and I'm sure he has been set for the Cup all along, so it won't surprise me if he can win today , another Cup for the Cummings family !

Almandin is the defending champion , up in weight but probably an even better stayer this year, again , this is the one race he has been set for, Lloyd is going for his 6th Cup !

Humidor is currently the second best horse in the country, and his breeding is screaming to me that he can stay the two miles being from the Northern Dancer/Galileo line out of a Zabeel mare and DK Weir is going for his second Cup in 3 Years and Humidor ain't 100-1!

If you put some money on all three horse on an each way bases (win and place) you should be a winner by 3.15pm !

Good luck.

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Originally Posted by Soccerfan

My top two picks are Marmelo and Wall of Fire.
I will include Tiberion, Boom Time, Single Gaze and Almandin in quinellas and Tri's.
Good Luck.

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I like your selections , good luck to you too mate!

Ps. You can't add Humidor in there somewhere ? Hartnell was beaten by Winx in the Cox Plate by 8 lengths last year and ran 3rd in the Cup, same with Criterion who was beaten 4 lengths the year before and ran third in the Cup. And before that Fiorente ran 3rd in the Cox Plate and won the Cup for Gai Waterhouse 10 days later, the Cox Plate form is very reliable in recent years . Unless you didn't see what Humidor did to Winx 10 days ago ??

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AHLUNGOR

I like your selections , good luck to you too mate!

Ps. You can't add Humidor in there somewhere ? Hartnell was beaten by Winx in the Cox Plate by 8 lengths last year and ran 3rd in the Cup, same with Criterion who was beaten 4 lengths the year before and ran third in the Cup. And before that Fiorente ran 3rd in the Cox Plate and won the Cup for Gai Waterhouse 10 days later, the Cox Plate form is very reliable in recent years . Unless you didn't see what Humidor did to Winx 10 days ago ??

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I understand your point, I did put him in my Tri's and quinella's but I think he may have too much weight and that the Cox Plate run may have taken its toll on him. I didn't back him straight out. Good luck to you!!

9,19,3,24,7,17,5 to lazy to write names

It was a tough battle maybe better luck next time

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Originally Posted by deep123

It was a tough battle maybe better luck next time

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Yeah, the overseas horse ran the Trifecta , and they draw away from the rest of the field. If you box the 11 overseas horse , if would have cost you $990 for a $3,410 return .

May be we just concentrate on the Lloyd Williams horses from now on, he certainly know more to win the Cup than you and I !!

Anyone here won?:cool2:

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Originally Posted by Babycat

Anyone here won?:cool2:

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Right at the last minute before they jump, I put $10 to win on no. 20, 22 and 24 so I got $150 back from that . And then I got a 10% Trifecta on all the overseas horses and got $302.51 back , that's based on superbet in Vic, NSW pays more. Damn ! So all up I got $450 back from the Cup, I think I was just about break even !

Ps. So it seems Humidor, Boom Time and Single Gazs all can't stay ! And I was wrong !