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The strike rate is different in different sports.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jj999
say NBA
My winning % on single bets is about 70%-75%
My winning % on double bets is about 65%
My winning % on others bets is difficult to say. The % of chance of winning will not determine how much money you make.
It simple because if I won on a 4 x 11 with all 4 legs. It can return 800% upwards
If only 3 choices out of 4 won, It can return 144% to 160%
Do you understand?
My winning %
Well, that's my job.Quote:
Originally Posted by EpicFun
And this is another interest.
And I'm not an expert yet.
Honestly, and I don't mean to show off, I have had success with my life since my school days. I did everything arguably effortlessly, and constantly looking for challenge.
Well, you didn't learn how the stock market really works, or how market really work from the school or how you trade them profitably. I have started learning them since my high school days.
It's all bullcrap what you are studying. Well not all, but most of it.
What you gonna learn from studying at a uni is that market is efficient and nobody can beat it except they are lucky or better informed.
And here I am, I am getting the same pieces of information as most of investor get, and still beating the market year after year after year.
Lucky? Hardly. Number of years, and the difference of return to the market are too big to say that I'm just lucky.
What will I do is doing what I'm interested or feel challenged to do.
Perhaps that's attributable to my relatively young age.
In summary, it's a new challenge for me that I'm interested in.
it is always welcome to share success story and learning new knowledge.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jj999
I am a guy like take on challenge.
Well, I actually talk about different things. Not winning percentage.Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelmate
It's the edge, or how much the your advantage in statistical terms.
For example, in a european roulette, the one in the star, the house edge for straight number is 2.7%. It means, every $100 bet you make in roulette table, the expected value is -$2.7
Of course you are not gonna win or lose that much, because you are betting $100. But over the course of let's say 10000 bets. Then the average losses for every single bets is $2.7. Which means if you play 10,000 times you are expected to lose $27,000.
In casino, anyone telling that he's kiling the casino, he might be lucky this time, and better stop before the law of averages catch up with him. Any system is futile, it's just changing the staking, and expected value would still be the same. Quit while you are ahead, because you're just lucky.
For sports betting, this is much harder to calculate, and it's possible to make positive expected value bets on sports. And that's what I'm interested in.
But that percentage of yours is amazing.
I believe what you said.
And 70% winning rate on singe bets is crazy. Let's say average bets $1000 and average odds 1.91
Which mean you make $33,700 every 100 single bets.
That's amazing. In a year, let's say you make 1000 singles, then it's $337,000
But I guess, the average odds you bet is not 1.91 right? Because sometimes I noticed you bet on very short price such as 1.3 or less.
Winning percentage of 57% on 1.91 odds is considered amazing already. One can make a good living by winning 57% of the times on 1.91 odds.
Expected value is something you can use for poker, it's not a perfect answer for sports betting. With sports you have injuries and different teams etc, expected value only works when there is a constant. There is nothing constant about sports, if you look at live bets during a basketball game on bet365 you would be amazed by the odds fluctuating like crazy. A while back I worked out a system on betting in the last quarter of the game for the winner, the odds sat around $1.08 and so forth. It only required one loss to wipe out weeks of betting, this happened to me when the Clippers came back from nowhere to beat the Grizzlies during first round playoffs. Lesson learnt was I would rather bet $100 on 300 to 1 odds with the 1% chance of winning than bet $100 on the 90% chance of winning with low odds. Inversely it's a 10% chance of losing $100 for an $8 gain or a 1% chance of winning $30,000.00's while risking $100. You have to win a lot of $8's to make $30,000.00's.
I'm betting $2.70 to win a massage.
Bet Confirmation - QT4189376820I - Internet Time of bet: 22/06/2012 00:30:50 Print
Selections
No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result
1 (J Francis & Vance Worley must start) PHI Phillies -1.5
Pitcher details COL Rockies(J Francis) @ PHI Phillies(V Worley)
(Run Line) 22/06/2012 None 2.10 To Run
2 (K Lohse & Jacob Turner must start) DET Tigers +1.5
Pitcher details STL Cardinals(K Lohse) @ DET Tigers(J Turner)
(Run Line) 22/06/2012 None 1.62 To Run
3 (C Kershaw & Travis Blackley must start) OAK Athletics +1.5
Pitcher details LA Dodgers(C Kershaw) @ OAK Athletics(T Blackley)
(Run Line) 22/06/2012 None 1.76 To Run
4 (Matt Moore & G Gonzalez must start) TB Rays +1.5
Pitcher details TB Rays(M Moore) @ WAS Nationals(G Gonzalez)
(Run Line) 22/06/2012 None 1.50 To Run
5 (Liam Hendriks & James McDonald must start) PIT Pirates -1.5
Pitcher details MIN Twins(L Hendriks) @ PIT Pirates(J McDonald)
(Run Line) 22/06/2012 None 2.35 To Run
6 (Carlos Zambrano & D Matsuzaka must start) BOS Red Sox -1.5
Pitcher details MIA Marlins(C Zambrano) @ BOS Red Sox(D Matsuzaka)
(Run Line) 22/06/2012 None 2.40 To Run
Multiples
Bet Type No of Bets Unit Stake Stake To Win Returns
5 Folds 6 0.45 2.70 70.06
Well, I believe it's still possible to gain +EV bet, that's what I'm learning.Quote:
Originally Posted by GWEILO
It's true for poker it's easier to know the +EV.
For sports, there are some simple one, such as the value of buying half point on particular size of point spread.
There are heaps more that I still wanna know.
I'm not into betting odds such as 1.08. There aren't much value there if there is any.
What you just described is a system.
Did you really compute the theoritical edge you have?
I know what you mean. But with parlays, it's harder to gain consistent profit without proper staking.
Also, if the parlays were to include heaps of negative EV, then you basically amplifying the -EV.
Parlays are to bet on special case. Such as when the parlay odds is actually bigger than if you bet single bets.
There are some bookmaker that offer those kind of parlay for particular leg.
Obvious example is bet365, with their bonus.
However, proper staking for parlay is quite hard. Because it involve huge odds.
let's see whether I'm going to nail another parlay. :smile:
Ticket Number:203309675Accepted Date:6/21/2012 - ESTGraded Date:1/1/0001Wager Type:Money LineWager Status:PendingRisk:$40.00 (USD) To Win Amount:$1,111.33 (USD) Description: Basketball - NBA - Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat - Oklahoma City Thunder
Baseball - MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics - Los Angeles Dodgers/Oakland Athletics
Baseball - MLB - Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia Phillies
Baseball - MLB - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals - Washington Nationals
Baseball - MLB - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Boston Red Sox
Item #:1Wager Type:Money LineOutcome:PendingSport / Period:Basketball NBA / Game Line:Basketball - NBA - Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat - Oklahoma City Thunder 6/21/2012 9:05:01 PM- (EST)
+130 * Game Notes:NBA Championship - Game 5 - Best of Seven (MIA 3-1)
Item #:2Wager Type:TotalOutcome:PendingSport / Period:Baseball MLB / Game Line:Baseball - MLB - Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics - Los Angeles Dodgers/Oakland Athletics 6/21/2012 3:35:01 PM- (EST)
Over 6½ -105 Pitchers:Clayton Kershaw -L - Must Pitch Travis Blackley -L - Must Pitch * Game Notes:Interleague
Item #:3Wager Type:SpreadOutcome:PendingSport / Period:Baseball MLB / Game Line:Baseball - MLB - Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Philadelphia Phillies 6/21/2012 7:05:01 PM- (EST)
-1½ +110 Pitchers:Jeff Francis -L - Must Pitch Vance Worley -R - Must Pitch * Game Notes:National League
Item #:4Wager Type:Money LineOutcome:PendingSport / Period:Baseball MLB / Game Line:Baseball - MLB - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals - Washington Nationals 6/21/2012 7:05:01 PM- (EST)
-129 Pitchers:Matt Moore -L - Must Pitch Gio Gonzalez -L - Must Pitch * Game Notes:Interleague
Item #:5Wager Type:Money LineOutcome:PendingSport / Period:Baseball MLB / Game Line:Baseball - MLB - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Boston Red Sox 6/21/2012 7:10:01 PM- (EST)
-139 Pitchers:Carlos Zambrano -R - Must Pitch Daisuke Matsuzaka -R - Must Pitch * Game Notes:Interleague
For NBA today I'm thinking OKC +10 & UNDER 200.5 Doubled at $1.85.
I'm thinking maybe $500 should do it, good enough for the weekend.
I agree with those two teams, not sure about the OVER 6.5 & OKC winning.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jj999
Well, the reason for Dodgers to go over.Quote:
Originally Posted by GWEILO
Clayton Kershaw is indeed a teriffic pitcher. Winner of Cy Young award.
However, he's been a bit struggling lately.
You see in last few outings, though Dodgers get the win, he surrendered runs more than usual.
Against White Sox, he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings.
While Blackley, he just got back on his feet, when he started against SD Padres, but, Padres is shitty team.
Blackley is hardly could be called as untouchable. Last few outings not so encouraging.
Oak also scoring runs lately, against pitcher of varying quality, good or shit.
Well, I thought, 6.5 is too low. I guessed the runs would be at least 7.
I wouldn't suggest something like yesterday, Yankees Vs Braves or Mariners Vs Dbacks.
But in my rough estimation, the total would creep over 6.5
Well, let's see. Anything can happen. There are heaps of randomness in sporting event.
Good luck
:smile:
Oh by the way, that's the bet I have most confidence on today.
Besides that
Phillies -1.5
Pirates -1.5
Red Sox -1.5
That's my single bets.
And I do agree with Detroit.
In fact, I have detroit to win and Under9.5 in another parlay. Not singles though.
Cheers Lads for getting me onto the NBA,
Had my first punt on the first game of this series and have been hooked since.
Only small bets today I am looking to turn 20 into 140 for over due massage thinking of
Miami to win
Miami -3.5
Over 194.5
Miami -3.5 +over 194.5
Anybody see anything completely wrong with that?
Thinking this could be the last one for the year on the NBA, can't wait till next year. Just would love to finish off on a win.
Good luck to all
MIA to win x $5000
MIA - 3 x $2000
Every game in the final series, OKC lead by huge margin.
My prediction is the last game (hopefully), MIA must lead in first quarter and half time, OKC will not have any chance of winning and come back.
However I love OKC so much. I need OKC to lose .
miami to win this. also have South Carolina, england to beat Windies, Broncos -6.5, Swans -8.5 x $500 to win $8800+
Close game, Thunder are not giving up!
another big day for Travelmate
WON and collect already!Quote:
Originally Posted by Travelmate