
Originally Posted by
GWEILO
Expected value is something you can use for poker, it's not a perfect answer for sports betting. With sports you have injuries and different teams etc, expected value only works when there is a constant. There is nothing constant about sports, if you look at live bets during a basketball game on bet365 you would be amazed by the odds fluctuating like crazy. A while back I worked out a system on betting in the last quarter of the game for the winner, the odds sat around $1.08 and so forth. It only required one loss to wipe out weeks of betting, this happened to me when the Clippers came back from nowhere to beat the Grizzlies during first round playoffs. Lesson learnt was I would rather bet $100 on 300 to 1 odds with the 1% chance of winning than bet $100 on the 90% chance of winning with low odds. Inversely it's a 10% chance of losing $100 for an $8 gain or a 1% chance of winning $30,000.00's while risking $100. You have to win a lot of $8's to make $30,000.00's.