Quote Originally Posted by GWEILO View Post
Expected value is something you can use for poker, it's not a perfect answer for sports betting. With sports you have injuries and different teams etc, expected value only works when there is a constant. There is nothing constant about sports, if you look at live bets during a basketball game on bet365 you would be amazed by the odds fluctuating like crazy. A while back I worked out a system on betting in the last quarter of the game for the winner, the odds sat around $1.08 and so forth. It only required one loss to wipe out weeks of betting, this happened to me when the Clippers came back from nowhere to beat the Grizzlies during first round playoffs. Lesson learnt was I would rather bet $100 on 300 to 1 odds with the 1% chance of winning than bet $100 on the 90% chance of winning with low odds. Inversely it's a 10% chance of losing $100 for an $8 gain or a 1% chance of winning $30,000.00's while risking $100. You have to win a lot of $8's to make $30,000.00's.
Well, I believe it's still possible to gain +EV bet, that's what I'm learning.
It's true for poker it's easier to know the +EV.
For sports, there are some simple one, such as the value of buying half point on particular size of point spread.
There are heaps more that I still wanna know.

I'm not into betting odds such as 1.08. There aren't much value there if there is any.
What you just described is a system.
Did you really compute the theoritical edge you have?

I know what you mean. But with parlays, it's harder to gain consistent profit without proper staking.
Also, if the parlays were to include heaps of negative EV, then you basically amplifying the -EV.

Parlays are to bet on special case. Such as when the parlay odds is actually bigger than if you bet single bets.
There are some bookmaker that offer those kind of parlay for particular leg.
Obvious example is bet365, with their bonus.
However, proper staking for parlay is quite hard. Because it involve huge odds.