Originally Posted by
adahar
I don't think I predicted "thousands and thousands of deaths", implied it or meant anything like your characterisation of what I said. I understand your comment is intended to be satirical and could be worth a chuckle or two but a valid understanding is there to be had if you look.
The vaccines are designed to prevent deaths, and they probably will. What they won't prevent is a high case load but it seems that this metric is the one that future health policy is destined to be designed around. This may turn out to be the wrong way to go about it. GB has already said the hospitalisations will be the important metric, so I'm not entirely out of line here.
80% full vaccination is, at the moment, a high bar. Chile is the only country with a comparable population number that has reached 70% so far. All the others over 70% have way, way smaller populations, some are half the size of Sydney, a lot easier to achieve and manage. I suspect that we won't get to 80% for another 12 months, if ever. Living in the 70% zone might be comfortable enough for most people not to bother anymore, such is the frailty of human acceptance.
I would dearly like to be wrong but reading the signposts from around the world leads me to think otherwise. We shall see.
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