Quote Originally Posted by Travelmate View Post
WHO IS INTERESTED TO BET ON THIS ONE???

Rate Decision
Odds updated at 23:09:41
Based on Cash Rate after RBA May Meeting

00:05 Tue 01 May 2012
Default Sort Order Sportsbet No. Selection Price Amount Total
114501 Increases by 0.50% or more 501.00 $
114502 Increases by 0.25% 201.00 $
114503 No change to current (4.25%) 12.00 $
114504 Decreases by 0.25% 1.30 $
114505 Decreases by 0.50% or more 3.00 $
If you are going to bet on that one. One advice from an investor.

Don't bet on the rate to move either up/down by 50 basis point (0.5%)
That's a lot of change on cash rate. And most probably won't happen unless there is catastrophic event such as the GFC.

The consensus of economists say the RBA going to lower the rate, therefore the odds is 1.3
But, it's very normal to see those moronic economists to be wrong. And it happens very often. They are there just to give their opinion, whether their forecast is right or wrong, nobody blames them. And you see, if excelling in econometric is the only thing you need to be able to forecast thing accurately, then you'd be able to see lots of econometrician is rich.
But, the fact is totally different. They are big bullshit, without much money.

Econometrician and any economist, are there to make a reason for government to justify their action.

So the value bet, should be the rate is not going to change.