Originally Posted by Hogrider
There are two big factors this year which will affect heavily on the outcome of the Cup:
1. With a Soft 7 on Derby Day (currently a Soft 6 according to TAB), and more rain forecasted, how wet will be the Cup of 2019 ? the experts are saying it will improve from Saturday and at worst a Soft 5 or better. So I am assuming, the track is Not going to play a big part comes 3pm on Tuesday.
2. Can the favourite Mer de Glace ($6.50 at TAB fix odd currently) stay the two miles, the trainer could not give a definitive answer as the horse has never raced beyond 2,200 in Japan, the Caulfield Cup was the furthest he ever raced! So for that, I have done some research: as I am thinking if he can stay the two miles, he'll win !
And it will all come down to the pedigree of the horse Mer de Glace:
By Rulership out of King Kamehameha, out of KingMambo out of Mr Prospector (who was a noted sire of stayers)
Rulership and his sire and grand sire had all won up to 2,400 - King Kamehameha had also sired a winner of Tenno Sho over 3,200 metres - the Japanese equivalent of the Melbourne. Rulership is a relatively young stallion but he had also sired a Japan St Ledger winner over 3,000 metres.
But it will be on Mer de Glace's dame side where we will find more staying influences:
His dame Glacier Blue was by Sunday Silence who was a grand sire of stayers including 7 individual winners of the Tenno Sho !!
There you go I think I am fairly confident that Mer de Glace will stay the two miles and therefore, he should win !
ps. just on Sunday Silence, while he hadn't sired a Melbourne Cup winner himself, his son Dance in the Dark did - Delta Blues in 2006 ! where he quinella the race with another Japanese horse Pop Rock. And guess where did Pop Rock came from ? his dame was by none other than - Sunday Silence.
ps 2. The horse who beat Delta Blues that year in the Caulfield Cup - Tawqeet - was sired by - KingMambo - the grand sire of Mer de Glace !!
Talking about omen tips !!
Reply With Quote
