
Originally Posted by
AHLUNGOR
OK, my Melbourne Cup betting strategies for 2019:
8 horse boxed.
Trifecta bet at $168.00 = 50%
First 4 at $168.00 = 10%
Good luck to us all !!
1. Cross Counter $20.00 - last year's winner, after the Cup win last year, he went to Dubai and won the World Cup (3,200M with 55kg) in March this year, he then ran 4th in the Ascot Gold Cup beaten by Stradivarius by 1.75L with 57.5 kg - so I don't think weight will be an issue. Then ran 3 behind Stradivarius again in the Goodwood Cup with 61kg by 2L over 3219M - so the form has been very consistent. last run 4th in the Irish St Ledger with 61kg. So this Melbourne Cup is actually easier for him ? Top 3 for me if you want an archor bet.
2. Mer De Glace $8.25 - Caulfield Cup winner, from my other post, I am confident that he can stay, so this is the right form horse, and you can't beat Damian Lane with he is on fire !! Top 3 chance for me !
23. Vow and Declare $12.00 - best of the locals, second in the Caulfield Cup, 52 kg is the winning weight, and don't forget after narrowly beaten by Mr Quickie in the Qld Derby, he won the Tatt's Cup 3,000 m by 3.25L with 54kg, so he is proven in the distance too.
Top 3 chance and I think he's got all the locals covered.
11. Finche $9.50 - Kerrin McEvoy and Chris Waller, winning combination every where and he had run 4th (3.5L) in the Cup last year after a 3rd in the Geelong Cup, so his form this year is much stronger.
19. Constantinople $10.00 - going with the strong recent trends of a Northern Hemisphere 3 years old with a light weight, having already had a run in the Caulfield Cup is a bonus assuring his fitness.
20. Il Paradiso $26.00 - another of the NH 3 years old, already won and placed over 3,200 - Aiden O'Brien trained .
12. Prince of Arran $16.50 - ran third in last yr's Cup with 53, after winning the Hotham and 3rd in the Herbert Power. so a quick back up seemed to be a positive for him, this year he ran along the similar path with a second in the HP then winning the Geelong Cup. There is no Marmelo this year and he meets Cross Counter 5.5kg better !
8. Mustajeer $14.50 - won the Ebor Hcp 2800m with 59.5kg which is good form for the Melbourne Cup, only 1.8L behind Mer de Glace in the Caulfield. Ollie is breaking so many records, might as well set another milestone by winning his 4th Cup !!
There you go, there are quite a few more chances but you can't tip and bet them all.
1, 2, 8, 11, 12, 19, 20, 23
May we win some TAB cash to finance our sexual punting this weeks.
Cheers
What's your tip?? let's share !