OK, one thing is for absolute 100% certain. Incentivise will NOT win. No fucking way. No chance. Will not happen.
Beyond that, anything is possible.
Spanish Mission is a strong chance, and even Twilight Payment could make history as the fist 9yo to win. Explosive Jack is a chance, and Tralee Rose could do it. And my money is on Verry Eleggant.
Also at least one horse will be shot dead.
That is a Melbourne Cup tradition now - a horse has to be sacrificed every year to placate the bloodthirsty punting gods. If not then they will release a thousand plagues upon us and lets be honest one plague was enough to fuck us, so we don't 1,000 of them. My money is on Delphi to be euthanised/sacrificed.