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[Kowabunga]

Hi alexchinn.
I don't think there is much more we can do to help you.
There is a lot that is known now about Covid and how to treat it, sure we are still fighting it worldwide... but to say it's just "guesswork"?
Vaccines were developed in record time, other treatments are now also available when hospitalised.
You may not be aware, the death rate in the elderly has been reduced from about 22% in the beginning to around1.6% now.
For the <70 yr population in Australia, the death rate was initially around 0.2%. Very low. Now around 0.01% approximately.
The severe illness and death rates are way lower now.
None of this is "guesswork".

BTW: deaths from the flu in 2019 was around 940.

Can't help you much more than that.